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Australia News China And Russia The End Of The Trump Presidency

How China and Russia could view the end of the Trump presidency 

The presidency of Donald Trump could generously be described as "tumultuous" - but its end may not make the world safer.

That is according to one expert who has said that despite Mr Trump's controversial and combative style, the substance of his foreign policy was actually stronger than widely thought - especially regarding perennial competitors Russia and China.



US President Donald Trump has lost his re-election bid - but what does that mean for global security? (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)

Global security analyst and Curtin University Professor Joe Siracusa told nine.com.au, those countries might be among the saddest to see Mr Trump's presidency come to an end.

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"Joe Biden is not about peace," Professor Siracusa said.

"Biden will sail the Seventh Fleet right to the Taiwan Strait.

"Trump is risk-averse. He'll go to war, but only if the US or one of their allies is attacked."

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Professor Siracusa said since the end of the Cold War, the geopolitical structure of the world had been reconfigured into the "Great Power Competition", where nations such as Russia and China, despite often being talked about as enemies of the US, were more accurately competitors.



A Joe Biden presidency does not guarantee peaceful times ahead for the world. (AP)

And as competitors, he said, they were more comfortable dealing with a Donald Trump than a Joe Biden.

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"Trump deals in power. He doesn't push a human rights angle or anything like that, he deals in power," Professor Siracusa said.

And that dynamic helped Mr Trump deal with some of the global stage's more belligerent characters.

"Trump and (Russian President Vladimir Putin) understand each other. Trump and Russia are on the same wavelength, but he's not their fool," Professor Siracusa said.

And despite the international rhetoric around China in recent months, Professor Siracusa insisted Russia was, militarily, a more important relationship to manage.



US President Donald Trump, right, shakes hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin, left. (AP)

The US and Russia are the two most heavily-armed nuclear nations on the planet, with arsenals stretching into the thousands.

By contrast, he said, China's stockpile totalled about 280.

"All China wants is Hong Kong and Taiwan," Professor Siracusa said.

"China would have liked to see the President returned. China knows Trump doesn't want a fight with them. The US people have always been fuzzy on defending Taiwan."

But US reluctance has a hard limit no matter who's in the Oval Office, Professor Siracusa said, and that was why the South China Sea would continue to be a scene of conflict.



The US would continue to contest Chinese claims in the South China Sea. (AP)

"The US Navy has always been dedicated towards keeping sea lanes open around the world," he said.

"And you aren't going to beat the US at sea, it doesn't happen."

And meanwhile, those two nations most closely associated with Mr Trump's term of office would be looking ahead beyond a Biden presidency.

"China and Russia play the long game," Professor Siracusa said.

"They can see Trump coming back in 2024, same as Turkey can. That's what they're thinking about now."

Ranking Trump's foreign policy

First of all, Professor Siracusa is very firm that he's not a fan of Donald Trump at all on a personal level – even calling him a "clear and present danger".

But, he said, he should be given credit for a number of foreign policy initiatives.

"If you separate Trump's foreign political style from substance – style is D-minus," he said.

"Substance has been terrific in many ways – he got the North Koreans to cool it, for example."

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Although Mr Trump's reaching out to the secretive regime of Kim Jong-Un has been criticised for a lack of tangible results, Professor Siracusa said the US President understood that Kim could not "give away too much".



North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and US President Donald Trump inside the demilitarised zone separating the South and North Korea on June 30, 2019 in Panmunjom, South Korea. (Getty)

And he said key US allies like South Korea, Japan and NATO member countries had received a "wake-up call".

"Trump's retreat policies were realistically calibrated," he said.

"The US has been in the Middle East for 20 years, we've spent $3 trillion, and got nothing. Iraqis do not regard US intervention as very useful."

Under Donald Trump, Professor Siracusa said, the US to his knowledge had not lost a soldier or seaman in four years – a "remarkable" achievement.

And crucially, he had an open line to hostile regimes.


Source:https://www.9news.com.au/world/us-election-2020-donald-trump-joe-biden-foreign-policy-russia-china-how-to-compare/76193a74-c3ba-4d75-8f08-870debec6133

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